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birdwatcherMichael B. Weissman@econjwatch.org -- An influential paper by Pekar et al. published in Science in 2022 claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that the likelihood that two successful introductions to humans had occurred was greater than the likelihood that just one had occurred. After correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning, the results presented in that paper imply larger likelihood for a single introduction. That correction reduces the compatibility of the results with the wet-market zoonosis account.
Michael B. Weissman is a Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He has worked mostly on condensed matter experiments, especially on low-frequency noise in disordered materials. He thinks that libertarian philosophy is factually detached from the realities of our species, implicitly cruel, and will lead to environmental catastrophe.
Michael B. Weissman is a Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He has worked mostly on condensed matter experiments, especially on low-frequency noise in disordered materials. He thinks that libertarian philosophy is factually detached from the realities of our species, implicitly cruel, and will lead to environmental catastrophe.