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bo_ba доставил особо ценный линк: Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US, by Dmitry Orlov.birdwatcherbo_ba доставил особо ценный линк: Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US, by Dmitry Orlov.
no subject
Date: 2010-01-14 04:45 pm (UTC)Остается только сожалеть, что это не тот же Орлов, возникающий здесь: http://kreml.org/other/233872727
no subject
Date: 2010-01-14 09:18 pm (UTC)If anything, a total collapse of US govt will cause very rapid economic expansion, so the crisis time will be quite short (2-3 years). And, unlike SU, US has a quite decent infrastructure and productive capital.
The danger is not in fast collapse, but in protracted Japanese-style degradation with government trying to "fix" things and making them worse, while the pushback from the population keeps the government from doing anything really drastic - and thus, ironically, keeping it from suicide.
no subject
Date: 2010-01-14 09:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 01:03 am (UTC)It took Bolsheviks three generations and millions of dead to get USSR to where it were in late 80s. US still have quite a sizable portion of population who can deal with freedom - and not to turn it into theft fest like post-perestroyka Russia. The population is not defenseless (guns are widespread, meaning that the local communities are able to maintain order - the crime wave is unlikely). Also, production in US is private, so there aren't going to be massive disruption related to "privatization".
Even with totally unprepared for the market freedom and defenseless population, with near-zero capital, and country being on the brink of starvation, it took only 5-6 years of weak-to-nonexistent government to get Russia to the point of livability.
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Date: 2010-01-16 03:31 am (UTC)chances for the productive areas of us (like Detroit) to suddenly become like Detroit are slim to none.
no subject
Date: 2010-01-16 07:42 am (UTC)Do not forget that the major part of income in Detroit economy was (and still is) government sector (predominantly military) - which, while appearing to create an illusion of production is, basically, nothing more than wealth destruction.
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Date: 2010-01-16 01:45 pm (UTC)Soviet Union wasn't productive for decades.
Exactly my point.
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Date: 2010-01-15 03:29 pm (UTC)http://www.fourmilab.ch/fourmilog/archives/2009-04/001143.html
Последний параграф такой:
There are some valuable insights here into the Soviet collapse as seen from the perspective of citizens living through it and trying to make the best of the situation, and there are some observations about the U.S. which will make you think and question assumptions about the stability and prospects for survival of the economy and society on its present course. But there are so many extreme statements you come away from the book feeling like you've endured an “end is nigh” rant by a wild-eyed eccentric which dilutes the valuable observations the author makes.
no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 03:31 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 03:59 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 04:07 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 04:14 pm (UTC)Про Джона Уокера писал здесь: http://yosefk.livejournal.com/67805.html
$1G заработан с Автокада, программист он очень интересный, к сожалению, ничего об этом не пишет практически, часть профхарактера, собственно; редчайший пример очень практичного и совершенно лишенного высоких техидеалов Лиспера и Фортера.
Примеры антифедерализма - здесь: http://www.fourmilab.ch/evilempire/ и здесь: http://www.fourmilab.ch/evilempire/noEU/
no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 04:21 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 04:36 pm (UTC)For me lab - это тоже мощно. Можно случайные числа снимать с какой-то радиоактивной хреновины через веб и все такое.
no subject
Date: 2010-01-15 04:37 pm (UTC)ROTFL
Date: 2010-01-15 03:56 pm (UTC)Re: ROTFL
Date: 2010-01-15 04:00 pm (UTC)Re: ROTFL
Date: 2010-01-15 04:05 pm (UTC)"Any behavior that might result in continued economic growth and prosperity is counterproductive: the higher you jump, the harder you land."
Не завязывай шнурки - все равно развяжутся.