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In recent crashes and old ones, in big vehicles and small, in one-car crashes and multiple-vehicle crashes, there is no evidence that car seats do a better job than seat belts in saving the lives of children older than 2. (In certain kinds of crashes -- rear-enders, for instance -- car seats actually perform worse.)
[from [livejournal.com profile] marginalrevtion]

Date: 2005-07-14 01:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sashura.livejournal.com
Очень может быть. Только как ты заставишь двух-трехлетнего ребенка сидеть с ремнем и не вылезать из него? Из кресла-то особо не вылезешь. Нужно сравнивать не пристегнутых детей и тех, что были в кресле, а детей, которые были пристегнуты на момент выезда из дома и тех, которых посадили в кресло.

Плюс, возможные проблемы из-за "According to the NHTSA manual, more than 80 percent of car seats are improperly installed."

Плюс всевозможные погрешности из-за того, что они смотрят только на тех, кто погиб, а не на всех, кто был на дороге или, хотя бы, на всех, кто попал в какую-нибудь аварию.

Date: 2005-07-14 01:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] birdwatcher.livejournal.com
А как они определяют? Видимо, спрашивают родителей -- был пристегнут, или нет, а это и означает "на момент выезда"...

Date: 2005-07-14 01:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sashura.livejournal.com
Сомневаюсь. Думаю, они смотрят на отчет пожарников/врачей/ментов или кто там достает тела из машины. Если погибли все, включая ребенка, то кто сможет сказать, что там было на момент выезда из дома?

Date: 2005-07-14 01:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] birdwatcher.livejournal.com
Если надо вырезать тела автогеном, то да, а если на момент приезда пожарных все уже ходили с постными лицами вокруг машины, то нет. Я отказываюсь думать, куда это искажает!

Date: 2005-07-14 01:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sashura.livejournal.com
Дык они смотрели на FARS, т.е. на дату по погибшим, а не по авариям. Если там умудрялись дети в креслах погибать, то не думаю, что много народу бродило вокруг с постными лицами. Если только водители других машин, но они не могут ничего знать о пристегнутости детей.

Date: 2005-07-14 01:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] birdwatcher.livejournal.com
А, точно.

Date: 2007-01-20 04:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] keethraxx.livejournal.com
Levitt'05: "...These results are
robust to a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including limiting the sample to crashes in recent years, particular types of vehicles and crash impacts, and focusing only on safety restraints which are being properly used according to police reports."

Date: 2005-07-14 01:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] -kk.livejournal.com
What ticks me off is that no one wants to leave it up to parents to decide. I knew a kid who screamed all the trip away locked in the rear seat, and who would behave nicely in the front seat next to his mom. As a result, the mom had to drive with her head turned backward. Anyone thinks it made the driving safer? But the law was upheld...

Date: 2005-07-14 01:46 pm (UTC)

Date: 2005-07-14 03:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ant-fugue.livejournal.com
I have a SERIOUS issue with mandatory carseats. My daughter could not bear to be in one as an infant, and I believe that there was some kind of a physical reason - she hated being in any kind of a similar half-lying-down-without-being-swaddled arrangement. I don't know whether the found it scary or whether her body hurt in that position. She was happy riding in a car in my arms.

While I agree that most kids should be in carseats, I wish there were an opt-out form, just like there is for claustrophobic adults. Parents should be required to have one in the car and maybe document their attempts to get the child to ride in one (Valya accepted the carseat once we switched to the toddler version), but they should not be required by the state to make their children cry until they are blue in the face just while going to the babysitter.

Surely in our situation driving with a screaming infact (we tried the "crying it out" proposition b/c living in central Indiana without using the car is extremely limiting, and she lasted for more than an hour at 3 weeks old) was much more dangerous for us and other drivers on the road than taking a small risk of going without a carseat.

Date: 2005-07-14 03:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ant-fugue.livejournal.com
Yea, well, guess which decision we ended up making about driving with a baby. Turns out that breastfeeding babies are nicely concealed under a blanket while a carseat with a top closed and covered by another blanket does not look conspicuously empty.

I went through a stage of strongly disliking police officers on sight. While rationally I understood that they were just doing a job, emotionally they were the people who hated my baby and wanted to make her cry.

On the plus side, since we did not want to tempt fate and the police force more than absolutely necessary, Scott learned how to do grocery shopping all by himself. :-)

Date: 2005-07-14 03:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] birdwatcher.livejournal.com
:)
Но без Скотта ты просто не могла никуда поехать? Не за рулем же кормить?

Date: 2005-07-14 03:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ant-fugue.livejournal.com
Нет, мы могли только вдвоем.

Date: 2005-07-14 03:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ant-fugue.livejournal.com
Где-то после полугода Валя начала понимать, что если сесть в машину и потерпеть совсем чуть-чуть, то мы приедем к ее любимой няне, и она согласилась не рыдать в сиденье по утрам на это время. Это очень помогло.

Date: 2005-07-14 03:50 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
Somehow, in Sweden, children ride in rear-facing seats up to age 5 or so. Don't know how they manage to fit a 5=year old in a rear-facing seat, but they have remarkably low rates. From what I know, in Europe they started to implement special seatbelts that would fit small children, but no movement in US.

The big drawabck in NYT article is that they looked at deaths only. It might be that in really bad accident, it wouldn't matter. But what about injuries ? Also, did they startify by age and look at younger vs. older children. "2 and older wearing seatbelt" sounds contradictory - imagine 2-year old with adult seatbelt - a travesty.

Date: 2005-07-14 04:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] birdwatcher.livejournal.com
Rates чего? Мертвецов на милю?

Date: 2005-07-14 06:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sashura.livejournal.com
Ideally, injuries (fatal or not) per accident. But since you can't get this data as half the accidents are not reported unless there was an injury, rate of injuries per child will do.

Date: 2007-01-20 04:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] keethraxx.livejournal.com
as linked above --
http://web.archive.org/web/20050828192606/http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/07/more-evidence-on-car-seats-vs-seat.html

Date: 2005-07-14 05:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] trurle.livejournal.com
Мне это кажется довольно невероятным.
Дело в том что одна из самых серъезных проблем в дизайне ремней безопасности - сделать так что бы пристегнутый человек не "уплывал" из под ремней вниз и вперед, навстречу всяким неприятно жестким предметам. Для маленького ребенка геометрия ремней, расчитанная на взрослого человека, делает такое "уплывание" совершенно неизбежным, а ремни, соответственно, довольно бесполезными. Поэтому я бы с большой осторожностью относился к статистическим данным, доказывающим обратное.

Date: 2007-01-20 04:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] keethraxx.livejournal.com
Такие вещи вообще надо на dummies проверять -- но тут речь про другое, про то, как оно в действительности происходит, а не в эксперименте когда other things being equal and all.